Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Culture as Power
I want to focus on an assertion
What the U.S desires in 2006 is increasing support for the redevelopment of
I think Nye has been proven right over the last decade, that there is some other level of “power,” that can be used to effectively get what you want other than guns and dollars, and this has occurred due to the current administration’s lack of understanding of the importance of soft power.
If this happens, then the ability of the
The key to peace in the 21st century, and the key to the success of the human race, is the utilization of technologies and the ease of sending information and the ease of human migration to promote a new universality between peoples and cultures that simultaneously allows parts of all cultures into each other while protecting the uniqueness of each person’s worldview. This is very difficult, because of the natural human fear of the different and the unknown. I don’t understand why people are scared of the idea of a world culture. Personally, I’m thrilled by it. Because foreign chicks are sooooo hot.
So, to say that our "relative military power has not changed", I think is at least somewhat inaccurate. More countries than ever have nuclear weapons, both China and India's 'hard' power are increasing much faster than the US's, and I think that has manifested itself to some degree in the Middle East. I think that the US was "successful" in the first Gulf War because not only did we have massive military superiority, but we also had massive economic superiority- Saudi Arabia needed our business, Kuwait represented a significant resource and investment, and there it wasn't in the US (or anybody's) in having Iraq in charge of it all.
But now, it's not so clear. China, India, and the new EU will obviously be needing oil, and increasing amounts of it, for the next few decades--so what does it really matter if the everyone else pisses off the US a little bit? And it's especially EASY to deny the US when their interests compel them to do so (like "we don't want to get involved in Iraq"). But that doesn't necessarily mean that it's due to a loss of persuasive or diplomatic power. It just means that countries are less likely to kowtow to your insane demands if you don't have the missiles and dollars to back it up. If China got on the Iraq bandwagon (and China is generally recognized to be lacking in soft power) I think it's pretty clear that a few more countries would be interested in it.
First with regards to relative military strength, the amount of countries that have nuclear weapons now that didnt in 91 is one, North Korea. The relative dominance of the U.S. in terms of military capabilities as compared to 1991 is probably about the same, if not greater thanks to the further degredation of the Soviet machine. Obviously other countries are catching up to the U.S. and EU economically, but in 2006, the distribution of military power in the world is still unipolar. Talk to me about China when they can take over Taiwan. (which right now, they couldn't.)
Moreover, the Gulf War had different causes and different aims then the Iraq War. You talk about the Saudis being much more eager to help then as opposed to now, but part of the reason the Saudis were so eager to support us wasn't that they needed the U.S. oil market, but rather because Iraq had invaded Kuwait and the Saudis were worried they were next. Additionally, the goals of the Gulf war (repel the invasion of Kuwait) were different than the goals of the Iraq War (depose Sadaam and set up a new government while staying there for an undefined amount of time.) Most importantly, Sadaam triggered the GUlf War himself through invading another country, which is why the War got UN support: the UN charter is very clear when it comes to invasions and violations of sovereign borders. The Iraq War was a preemptive war and this distinction matters as to why many countries (even Western ones,) didn't jump into the fray. Now, with some of the preemtive reasons proved to be a pack of lies, the U.S. looks even shoddier when they try to make the same arguments about Iran. That would seem to me to be a loss of power (the ability to get others to do what you want,) that has little to do with military or economic resources.
But either you believe in soft power or you don't. So which is it? Do you think that all international decisions between states are informed simply by military and economic concerns? Are you a dirty realist?
What I think you're talking about in Iran is credibility- which is related to power, but not the same thing. Convincing people and states to do things is different than coercing (implicitly or explicitly) them to do things. In Iraq War 1, countries cooperated because yes, it lined up with their interests. But it also lined up to some degree because the US's interests WERE other people's interests. If the US economy failed then, it was bad for everyone. If it fails now, there are some that stand to gain for it.
Let's go back to 2003. Up to then, we hadn't yet 'lost' our soft power, right? We had probably gained some political capital from 9/11 and Afghanistan. But nobody supported the US on the grounds that 'Oh, they've been credible, and maybe we do need to preempt Saddam.' At least SOME loss of power had already occurred, and I think that it was largely economic. It wasn't important for other countries to get involved in Iraq when all that was really on the line was the appreciation of the US. In fact, let's say the US didn't get involved in 1991 at all. Would it really have been resolved so quickly? Would there have been widespread multinational cooperation? I don't know the answers to those questions, but I suspect that without the US as the ringleader of the operation, Kuwait would just have been more of a peacekeeping operation had the US not wanted it to be a point of focus and a show of military power.
I don't think that international decisions are purely military-economic. I don't think that any nation behaves in a certain way, or under certain constraints. The fact is that nations are governed by humans, and they're subject to some of the same irrationalities. But I don't also think that if we would just practice what we preached, we'd gain credibility, stability, respect, and friends all over the world. I think THAT view assumes a lot more rationality of the other nations in the world.
I think what is more reflective of reality is that soft power follows hard power- it becomes an extension, perhaps even an augmentation of the hard power, in that the most powerful nations can press their values, morals, and religion through their media, economic dependency, outsourcing, education, and technology. I certainly don't think that morals, trust, and credibility can win you power in and of themselves.
Hard power and Soft power are certainly intertwined, but I don't think hard power leads to soft power necessairly. I think that in general, states have never really tried a full on soft power campaign, because it's easier to understand and manage hard power resources (you can count the amount of dollars or guns, where as you can't count your amount of culture points.) The U.S. however, if it is falling behind in hard power resources would be advised to come up with a soft power strategy for the next 25-50 years. That may be too forward thinking for The Pentagon however
And I think that it's precisely because the US is falling behind in hard power that we need to come up with better soft power strategies. But that's not the Pentagon's job. The Pentagon shouldn't be about foreign policy. There's a reason why it used to be called the Department of War. When you get the Pentagon involved in international relations, it's usually a bad thing. And I think it's somewhat telling that many of the Pentagon's top officials told Bush that invading Iraq was way too risky- that they needed way more troops than they had allocated, and that it was going to be bloody and dragged-out, and in the end pretty unpredictable. But Bush, of course, doesn't always listen to people who know more than him and chose to use the military as his preferred tool.
But anyway, I think the other reason is that hard power is easy to control. Dollars and tanks are easy to use but soft power is a slippery eel. And (cue America the Beautiful) that's why I actually think we're doing just fine in the soft power arena. Sure, our diplomatic relations are crappy, but just wait a few more years for a saner president. What's much more important is that American culture exports are still huge- technological leadership still starts with American, except in stem-cell research. Almost all of the best research universities are here. Our mass media is widely exported to even hard to reach countries. And despite our difficulties with racism, this country is still the only one that as its goal, wants to be a melting pot. (OK, not the south). I think that's more important than people give credit for- that a citizen of another country can come to America and at least see that we're TRYING to treat them equally. And the liberals are winning- think of Bush as the one step backwards in between 2 steps forward.
I think (hope/pray to my non-existent God,) that you are right that 50 years from now, when you and I are having chips put into our heads to extend our lives till the 22nd century, the Bush Administration will represent the apex of conservative backlash to the continued development of the U.S. as a melting pot society, and that the exportation of our culture will continue to help us in the long run. To get back to Huntington, he is strongly against the idea of a universal culture, but in writing his book in 1996 I think he did not get to understand how the internet could connect people from different parts of the world. Nor does he correctly understand the ability of cultures to merge with each other into hopefully some sort of world culture, or world ideology, that takes the best out of everything, (idealistic, you bet. Possible, why not?)
And the Bush Administration has dropped the ball on the difference between the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense as seperate entities. We should have known this when they appotinted a military general as the Secretary of State in the first place; and then canned him because he wasn't hawkish enough.
In other news, fuck you Ken Lay, I hope you also get the Vito Spatafore treatment in prison and I want my 100K back.
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