Monday, October 03, 2005
ALDS Preview
Time for some co-blogger animosity baby! In case you haven’t noticed over the year, I, the Marmaniac, call the City of Champions, Boston, home. Stuart, meanwhile, resides in the Windy City, after being nurtured as a youth in Chicago’s Northern Suburbs. Being the top-level hater that he is, Stuart has rejected his North Side roots and, simultaneously, a whole swath of Chicago yuppie frauds who call themselves Cub fans to embrace the less-loved Chicago White Sox. I would like to compliment Stu on correctly identifying a group of people who are underrated in their need to get hated on: Cubs fans, many of whom are not from Chicago but embrace the team as an excuse to get drunk and not pay attention to the game at all.
Let’s focus on what’s important here: The first round of the MLB playoffs. Sox vs Sox. Lim vs. Marmar. Both teams finished with 95 plus wins, yet neither could be called complete. Who holds the advantage in this sure to be titillating tilt?
Naturally the answer is, the defending champion Boston Red Sox. This answer contradicts conventional wisdom, that pitching and defense win in October over offense, and that teams who can manufacture runs through sacrifice bunts, baserunning, and grounding out to the right side maximize this skill in the postseason because runs are at more of a premium. The White Sox, with their superior pitching and defense and commitment to “Ozzieball,” would appear to have the advantage if you buy this line of reasoning.
Of course like most conventional wisdom, this logic is a pile of crap. The best pitching team doesn’t always win in the playoffs, otherwise the Braves would have six or seven championships in the last 15 years. In fact the Braves lack of success has required a modification of the “pitching wins,” theory to “power pitching wins.” Which is also a bunch of crap. The best postseason pitchers for the Red Sox in 2004 were Keith Foulke and Derek Lowe: Neither power pitchers. Teams win games in the postseason the same way the do in the regular season, through a combination of pitching, defense, and hitting. It also helps to get lucky, to have some players go through hot streaks at that right time.
If you analyze the Sox on Sox matchup, you would have to give Boston the advantage on offense, and Chicago the advantage on defense and on the mound. The weakness of the Red Sox pitching staff has been lack of a number one starter, and most importantly a lack of bullpen depth. The second problem will be alleviated in the postseason somewhat however, by moving Bronson Arroyo from starter to reliever, a role in which he has excelled in the past. Our team has lacked a reliable middle reliever to keep games close, which we now have. More Bronson means we can hyper-specialize Mike Myers and Bradford, saving them for lefty-righty matchups, and keeping them out of situations in which they are likely to fail. The scheduling of the playoffs, with days off also allows us to throw our only effective relievers, Timlin and Papelbon every game.
All this means that our greatest weakness this year, our bullpen, could become a strength. Meanwhile our offense sees its three key players, Damon, Ortiz, and Ramirez, all hot to varying degrees, with Manny being as on fire as I’ve ever seen him. Our supporting “get-on-base” crew of Nixon, Mueller and Varitek, is ice cold, however. But the starters have had a good September, with the exception of Clement, who has been absolutely atrocious and, of course, is scheduled to start both games one and five. So that could be a problem. Hopefully he can channel the spirit of D-Lowe.
Another advantage I believe we hold is Francona over Guillen. Guillen’s propsensity for small ball is another way of saying “I like to give away outs.” Francona, meanwhile, seems to step up his managerial prowess in big games. His weaknesses as a manager: not adequately rotating in young players, matter less in the playoffs, where every game is do or die. He will also protect his players, whereas Guillen has shown he has no qualms about throwing them under the bus if they fail, while taking more than his share of credit for their success.
Chicago is a good team that’s solid in most categories. But they are just that, solid. They don’t have the lineup to effectively handle Wells, Wake, and a rejuvenated Schilling (3-0, 3.70 Era in September) Their pitching is good, Buerhle particularly scares me, but we have rocked Contreras historically, and Fenway will be hopping for games three and four. The Red Sox are starting on an upswing at the right time. I say Chicago takes game one, but that’s it.
Red Sox in Four.
