Friday, August 26, 2005
SAWX!
As we reach the climax of another baseball season, the pressure on the Red Sox continues to build, as the Yankees narrowed their deficit to two and a half games as the team was in the throes of an ultimately disappointing 10 game road trip on which we compiled a 4-6 mark. While we split with the AL West leading Angels, we blew two of three in Detroit that were easily winnable and got taken by the fracking Royals. Now, the Sox have been a .500 road team thus far, while going 38-18 at home…and 25 of our 37 remaining games are at home. Thus, confidence is still high. Our success at home, in my opinion, is mostly a function of comfort for our hitters and, more importantly, the ability to have last ups, which gives our greatest strength (our offense) the advantage when trying to cover for our greatest weakness (our bullpen.)
The 2005 Sox actually remind me of the 2002 Pats, who didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7, due to a fundamental inability to stop the run. The Sox will make the playoffs, mostly due to a weak AL, but still have a fundamental inability get people out. The return of Curt Schilling last night was supposed to be a step in alleviating this flaw, but the wanker gave up six runs in five innings. To the Royals.
But statistically, we should be encouraged from Schilling’s performance. He only walked two, gave up no home runs, and struck out five in six. He gave up 9 hits, which is how the Royals went about scoring their runs. But hits, according to many sabermaticians, are more a function of luck then performance. Balls hit in play will find holes or find fielders. What a pitcher can do is control how many balls are put in play (strikeouts), how many free batters he gives bases (walks), and how many balls he allows out of play (home runs.) These are known as the Three True Outcomes.
On balls hit in play off of Schilling, hitters are batting around 380. This is a very high figure, and would lead some to say that Schilling has been sucking simply because he’s been unlucky. As long as he keeps pitching, this number will “self-correct.” But this thesis defies the observable evidence, that hitters are getting hits off of Schilling because his pitches aren’t what they were. His fastball has lost three miles per hour off of last year. More worrisome is his off-speed stuff, which lacks its previous bite. A steady diet of hanging splitters leads to a higher percentage of line drives, and coincidently, more hits per balls in play.
Thus our season appears to hinge on whether Schilling gets it together in time for the last three weeks of the season or remains damaged goods. However, there are other scenarios that could possibly save the pitching and give us hope for the postseason. Clement could return to early season form, (he hasn’t been the same since getting hit in the face,) although his historical inability to pitch a high number of innings does not bode well. Foulke could return to the bullpen, stabilizing the end of games and allowing everyone else to fill more comfortable roles. (Highly possible; if healthy, he has been a consistently great reliever for five plus years.) One of our young pitchers, Papelbon, Delcarmen, and Hansen, could emerge to steal roles from current mediocrity. (Delcarmen, probably not, as he needs to gain more confidence in his breaking stuff. Papelbon looks like someone ready to contribute immediately, while Hansen is an unknown commodity, but hopefully the next Huston Street.) Or we could keep on sucking and winning games through our offense. As we have all year.
Regardless, the Sox are in the middle of a stretch where they play 30 straight days! While this is bad for the team, considering our lack of depth, it’s great for me. I’ll be watching. And you’ll have to hear about it.
The 2005 Sox actually remind me of the 2002 Pats, who didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7, due to a fundamental inability to stop the run. The Sox will make the playoffs, mostly due to a weak AL, but still have a fundamental inability get people out. The return of Curt Schilling last night was supposed to be a step in alleviating this flaw, but the wanker gave up six runs in five innings. To the Royals.
But statistically, we should be encouraged from Schilling’s performance. He only walked two, gave up no home runs, and struck out five in six. He gave up 9 hits, which is how the Royals went about scoring their runs. But hits, according to many sabermaticians, are more a function of luck then performance. Balls hit in play will find holes or find fielders. What a pitcher can do is control how many balls are put in play (strikeouts), how many free batters he gives bases (walks), and how many balls he allows out of play (home runs.) These are known as the Three True Outcomes.
On balls hit in play off of Schilling, hitters are batting around 380. This is a very high figure, and would lead some to say that Schilling has been sucking simply because he’s been unlucky. As long as he keeps pitching, this number will “self-correct.” But this thesis defies the observable evidence, that hitters are getting hits off of Schilling because his pitches aren’t what they were. His fastball has lost three miles per hour off of last year. More worrisome is his off-speed stuff, which lacks its previous bite. A steady diet of hanging splitters leads to a higher percentage of line drives, and coincidently, more hits per balls in play.
Thus our season appears to hinge on whether Schilling gets it together in time for the last three weeks of the season or remains damaged goods. However, there are other scenarios that could possibly save the pitching and give us hope for the postseason. Clement could return to early season form, (he hasn’t been the same since getting hit in the face,) although his historical inability to pitch a high number of innings does not bode well. Foulke could return to the bullpen, stabilizing the end of games and allowing everyone else to fill more comfortable roles. (Highly possible; if healthy, he has been a consistently great reliever for five plus years.) One of our young pitchers, Papelbon, Delcarmen, and Hansen, could emerge to steal roles from current mediocrity. (Delcarmen, probably not, as he needs to gain more confidence in his breaking stuff. Papelbon looks like someone ready to contribute immediately, while Hansen is an unknown commodity, but hopefully the next Huston Street.) Or we could keep on sucking and winning games through our offense. As we have all year.
Regardless, the Sox are in the middle of a stretch where they play 30 straight days! While this is bad for the team, considering our lack of depth, it’s great for me. I’ll be watching. And you’ll have to hear about it.
# posted by Marmaniac @ 9:45 AM 
