Your Thoughts Exactly

Baseball is a game of numbers, let’s face it. The whole reason most of us got into baseball as children is that we liked comparing the numbers to each other. As an aesthetic game, baseball cannot even begin to compare to basketball or football, for many reasons. First there is nothing going on the majority of the time. Second, the game, especially on television, is reduced to a battle between batter and pitcher (I almost said batsman and bowler, good gravy).

Most of the publicity generated by baseball has to do with individuals or teams chasing after historic streaks, or trying to discern whether recent accomplishments were accomplished with steroids, or whether Player A is having a better year than Player B. We focus on offense and pitching over defense because they are more readily quantifiable. We compare players across eras. We have fantasy teams based on statistical aggregation. There is an entire web genre dedicated to analyzing statistics, creating more accurate and complex statistics, and arguing over whose statistical methods are superior. Baseball truly is the game of the geek.

Thus, for this preview, which only concerns the Red Sox, since they are the only team I really care about (that and the fortunes of ex-Red Sox) I am trying something unorthodox. I will not quote one statistic. Because, in reality, statistics can’t accurately predict the future. You can take PETCOA and shove it up your ass.

For example, let’s say your team was down three games to zero in a playoff series. You were one run behind with one inning left to play in the fourth game. What would statistics tell you about your odds of winning that series?

Thus, all predictions for the season will be based simply on my own instincts.

Starting Pitching:

Curt Schilling: I realize I’m the only person from Boston who doesn’t like Curt Schilling, but I feel that I should strongly reiterate this point. I don’t like Curt Schilling. He talks too much. He is a big George W Bush supporter. And most importantly, he stole Pedro’s thunder. Schilling’s popularity shouldn’t surprise many: he is the first Caucasian superstar the Red Sox have had since Clemens. It was really hard for Bostonians to root for minority superstars over the decades. I predict an injury plagued year for Schilling, rife with excuses from his legions of online minions (you know who you are,) about how unlucky he’s been.

Bronson Arroyo: If he wears the cornrows for most of the season, he should intimidate enough of the opposition to lead the team in wins.

Matt Clement: Throws hard, but did get bumped from the rotation for Glendon Rusch. Meaning he sucks. Or Dusty Baker doesn’t know what he’s doing, because I may know nothing about Clement, but I can tell you this: Glendon Rusch is terrible. Clement, is supposedly the young gun who is going to turn into Nolan Ryan thanks to the leadership of Schilling and Varitek. Of course, he is thirty years old, an established major leaguer, and last year benefited from the counsel of a superior pitching legend (Greg Maddux) and a catcher the Red Sox tried to sign in the offseason. (Damien Miller.) I think Clement is what he is.

David Wells: I hate David Wells with the passion of five to six hundred burning suns. He does not incur the wrath of a Jeter, Clemens, or a Fader-Rattner. However, I loathe him enough to openly root against him even though he is wearing the Sox uniform. A terrible signing, by the way.

Tim Wakefield: The last connection to the glory days of my time as a Red Sox fan, when I could walk down the day before the game to Fenway and buy a Grandstand seat for 14 bucks. Ah the good old days. I can’t believe I’m old enough to have good old days.

Bullpen:

This year, our management has determined to find out whether bullpen pitchers really can throw forever. Embree and Timlin are approaching 40, and we picked up John Halama for some reason. Dave can you shed any light on that? Then we have the rehab crew of Mantei and Miller, both coming off major arm problems. This of course pisses me off, because while we refused to sign Pedro because we assumed he was going to blow his shoulder out, we had no problem throwing money at other pitchers who are damaged goods. I know, I know, the amount of money we are committing to these players isn’t in the same ballpark. The thing is, we all know the Red Sox do not need to be concerned about money. And if these pitchers, both of whom are much higher risk than Pedro, blow out their arms, our team will suffer in the win column. And I will be sad.
We also have Keith Foulke, one of the best relievers in the game, who will close the end of many a Red Sox victory. And I will be happy.

Starting Lineup

Jason Varitek: When the Red Sox management made their decision to resign Varitek and let Martinez and Lowe go, Peter Gammons commented that the rowdy, carefree spirit that embodied the Red Sox clubhouse in 2003 and 2004, was not the long term image the team wanted to portray for the future, and that signing Varitek made him the face of the franchise. Well excuse me, but those rowdy carefree players, they won the freaking World Series for us! Who cares if they don’t shave their beards or drink whiskey before the games. They broke the curse! More importantly, I don’t want the Red Sox 21st century Gashouse Gang to turn into a boring, professional juggernaut. New England already has one of those. I need some variety in my champions. Anyways, when we are paying Varitek 10 mil to play 40 games off the DL in the last year of his deal as Pedro is wrapping up his fourth straight Cy Young, I’ll just have to say I told you so. Of course by then, we will have traded for Pedro again. So once again, I will be happy.

Kevin Millar: Another member of the All-Interview team, as in sometimes it seems all he ever does is interviews and never does anything on offense. I waver between appreciating Millar as a buffer for media attention and finding him overbearing. Ehhh, what the hey, I’ll let him stay around.

Mark Bellhorn: Destined to strike out, walk a ton, hit a little, be cited by statheads as the best second baseman in the league, and have me wishing for the days of Jody Reed. The fact that Bellhorn’s approach to the game of baseball could yield results implying he is the premier offensive force at his position indicates a flaw in the game of baseball itself. He is a negative player, content to rely on the inadequacies of the opposition rather than his own skills. I hate him for it.

Edgar Renteria: Edgar. Silly Edgar Renteria. Silly Edgar Renteria. What a guy he was. Derek Jeter. I didn’t mean to hurt you. But you are nothing compared to Edgar. Silly Edgar Renteria. Silly Edgar…Renteria.

Bill Mueller: Mueller has to be thinking to himself, “why does Dave Roberts get to be a Bostonian folk hero when I’m the one who actually got the hit off Rivera.” Good question. Mueller also hit the game-winning home run off Mariano in the Varitek/A-Guez brawl game. For these key contributions to our championship team, I will be rooting for him to be replaced by Kevin Youkilis come June.

Manny Ramirez: With Pedro gone, Manny becomes my favorite player on the team, which means he has one year tops before he gets traded. Unfortunately, I forsee Manny missing at least thirty games with a bonehead injury: crashing into Wally during fielding practice.

Johnny Damon: You think his hair is crazy? You should see mine. I am absolutely disgusted by the amount of hair on my head. Yet I cannot cut it. It has taken on a mind of its own. I look like the cavemen from the Wacky Races. Dave bring clippers when you come to Australia.

Trot Nixon: This is the year, when Trot finally fulfills the predictions of myself and several of Acton Massachusetts’ finest. That’s right, Trot Nixon will make the All-Star team. I would also like to mention, that I also predicted, and was mocked, for stating at the time that Jason Varitek would make the All-Star team, which he did in 2004. So ha.

David Ortiz: A worthy successor to Mo Vaughn. I can think of no higher praise.

Bench: I expect nothing but top quality high-fives, spitting of sunflower seeds, and hitting on teenage girls during the middle innings for our reserves.

Final Verdict: I am sticking with my prediction: 92-70 with a wildcard birth, followed by a repeat World Series victory. Bronson Arroyo for World Series MVP