Friday, February 04, 2005
Super Bowl XXXIX Preview
Well it’s taken two weeks of being in the US, but I’m finally adequately pumped for the Super Bowl, although I am most certainly not pumped enough considering my team’s playing in it for the third time in fourth years. This is not because I have become an arrogant championship fan (no really I swear,) but because I have missed most of the NFL season. Even in Australia, however, the Super Bowl gets free-to-air treatment, meaning I can actually watch the game from my house rather than a seedy 24 hour bar. Additionally, the game starts at a reasonable 1030 AM, so I’ll have some beers, the grill going, and watch the game at home with my Dad who’ll be in town. Just like Middle America would want it.
I’ve only see this Pats team play a few games, but I get feeling that the 2004 edition may be our strongest yet. As I have harped on in previous entries, our offensive proficiency particularly with regards to a stable running game sets us apart from previous editions. Our defense lacks the overall strength of last year’s team, but this is mainly due to the Law injury. With a healthy Seymour, our defensive line and linebacking corps may be even stronger than last years’ edition.
Importantly, we played last year’s Super Bowl with a depleted secondary as well. If you remember, Strong Safety Rodney Harrison and Free Safety Eugene Wilson were both injured in the first half, allowing Carolina to exploit the middle of the field with Mushin Muhammad and Steve Smith and to fight there way back into the game in the second half. This year, the secondary has adjusted to playing without one of their stars, and Mitchell, Lewis and company don’t match up to the receiving corps of the Panthers. Owens’ health and effectiveness is the key X factor, but the Patriots generally succeed at shutting down an offensive teams’ primary weapon: Marvin Harrison or Marshall Faulk being two examples. Thus, fear not a healthy Owens.
Offensively, the Patriots should rely on a combination of Dillon and multiple wide receiver sets, testing the Eagles secondary with deep balls and quick timing routes. The Eagles defense revolves around their blitz schemes and strong secondary coverage. The Patriots match up well against this type of scheme, as Brady is masterful at picking up blitzes and staying in the pocket, and the offensive line does a good job of keeping him off his backside. Most importantly, the Pats with their depth at receiver and tight end present matchup problems for the Eagles secondary, simply because they can’t focus on shutting any one receiver down. I believe the Pats will be able to run against the Eagles base defense, on the basis that the Eagles d-line is smallish and more known for their pass rushing and the fact that Dillon has ran on everyone all year. If the Eagles can’t stop the run, they won’t be able to unleash complex blitzes on third and long, allowing Brady to reach a comfort zone. Hopefully for the Pats, Charlie Weis won’t get overanxious to unleash every trick play in the book in his last game on the sidelines, as his WR passes etc. have had a tendency to backfire into turnovers in recent years.
Ah turnovers. Last season when the Eagles and Pats faced off, McNabb had three, two picks and a fumble, and generally played an awful game in a 31-10 New England victory in Philadelphia. I don’t expect McNabb to play that bad again, but his poor performance that Sunday was as much a result of the Eagles receivers inability to get open as McNabb’s inaccuracy. Despite the TO upgrade, I could see a similar scenario unfolding. The Patriots defense consistently shows the ability to take advantage of the oppositions mistakes in big games, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome this time around. McNabb is a great player and the Eagles would be wisest in my opinion to try and use his scrambling ability as a weapon early in the game, just to get the Patriots thinking about a different option.
The Eagles have put together another fine season under Andy Reid, but I don’t believe this edition is really superior to any of the past Eagles teams, especially with an unhealthy Owens limping around. The Patriots will enter this game prepared and understanding they must not overlook the opponent for sixty minutes, as last year’s near loss to Carolina must have taught them. I don’t expect a total blowout; the Eagles have enough good players on both sides of the ball to cause the Pats some problems. I also don’t expect Vinaterri to have to win the Pats the game in the last minute. If anything I expect the game to go something like the Green Bay-New England Super Bowl, a close game for most of the first half with the better team taking the lead into halftime and holding off any late charges.
New England 38 Philadelphia 20
I’ve only see this Pats team play a few games, but I get feeling that the 2004 edition may be our strongest yet. As I have harped on in previous entries, our offensive proficiency particularly with regards to a stable running game sets us apart from previous editions. Our defense lacks the overall strength of last year’s team, but this is mainly due to the Law injury. With a healthy Seymour, our defensive line and linebacking corps may be even stronger than last years’ edition.
Importantly, we played last year’s Super Bowl with a depleted secondary as well. If you remember, Strong Safety Rodney Harrison and Free Safety Eugene Wilson were both injured in the first half, allowing Carolina to exploit the middle of the field with Mushin Muhammad and Steve Smith and to fight there way back into the game in the second half. This year, the secondary has adjusted to playing without one of their stars, and Mitchell, Lewis and company don’t match up to the receiving corps of the Panthers. Owens’ health and effectiveness is the key X factor, but the Patriots generally succeed at shutting down an offensive teams’ primary weapon: Marvin Harrison or Marshall Faulk being two examples. Thus, fear not a healthy Owens.
Offensively, the Patriots should rely on a combination of Dillon and multiple wide receiver sets, testing the Eagles secondary with deep balls and quick timing routes. The Eagles defense revolves around their blitz schemes and strong secondary coverage. The Patriots match up well against this type of scheme, as Brady is masterful at picking up blitzes and staying in the pocket, and the offensive line does a good job of keeping him off his backside. Most importantly, the Pats with their depth at receiver and tight end present matchup problems for the Eagles secondary, simply because they can’t focus on shutting any one receiver down. I believe the Pats will be able to run against the Eagles base defense, on the basis that the Eagles d-line is smallish and more known for their pass rushing and the fact that Dillon has ran on everyone all year. If the Eagles can’t stop the run, they won’t be able to unleash complex blitzes on third and long, allowing Brady to reach a comfort zone. Hopefully for the Pats, Charlie Weis won’t get overanxious to unleash every trick play in the book in his last game on the sidelines, as his WR passes etc. have had a tendency to backfire into turnovers in recent years.
Ah turnovers. Last season when the Eagles and Pats faced off, McNabb had three, two picks and a fumble, and generally played an awful game in a 31-10 New England victory in Philadelphia. I don’t expect McNabb to play that bad again, but his poor performance that Sunday was as much a result of the Eagles receivers inability to get open as McNabb’s inaccuracy. Despite the TO upgrade, I could see a similar scenario unfolding. The Patriots defense consistently shows the ability to take advantage of the oppositions mistakes in big games, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome this time around. McNabb is a great player and the Eagles would be wisest in my opinion to try and use his scrambling ability as a weapon early in the game, just to get the Patriots thinking about a different option.
The Eagles have put together another fine season under Andy Reid, but I don’t believe this edition is really superior to any of the past Eagles teams, especially with an unhealthy Owens limping around. The Patriots will enter this game prepared and understanding they must not overlook the opponent for sixty minutes, as last year’s near loss to Carolina must have taught them. I don’t expect a total blowout; the Eagles have enough good players on both sides of the ball to cause the Pats some problems. I also don’t expect Vinaterri to have to win the Pats the game in the last minute. If anything I expect the game to go something like the Green Bay-New England Super Bowl, a close game for most of the first half with the better team taking the lead into halftime and holding off any late charges.
New England 38 Philadelphia 20
# posted by Marmaniac @ 5:52 PM 
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lets see, you're in the states for two weeks, the super bowl in is tomorrow, all your friends are in chicago (yes, all), and you go back to the football-crazed land of australia to watch the game?
# posted by 
: 7:22 PM
: 7:22 PM
The worst part is, my flight from DC to LAX stopped over in Chicago. All I needed to do is tell you and you could have "kidnapped" me until after the game. Of course, then I would have had to hang out with Derek.
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