Wednesday, December 01, 2004
The Rise of China...Bring it On
With Stuart writing on the future of the United States, it’s time to consider possible competitors to good old US hegemony. Japan is pretty much consigned itself to number two economic status and still is totally reliant on the United States for security. The EU has yet to demonstrate whether it can function as an integrated military power. No it is China that most commentators focus on as the next challenger to the United States.
Why is this? Well they do have a lot of people, and more importantly, are growing like mad. The average annual growth rate for China in the last ten to twenty years is around 8-10 percent, whereas the US’ is probably around 3 percent. One of the key’s to the United States’ dominance right now is that they serve as the primary export market for many areas of the world…we buy a lot of shit. China could steal our role in that sense, with growing income and a four times as many people. Many of the doomsday scenarios occur where the US becomes marginalized as other countries eagerly ally themselves with China economically and politically to take advantage of China’s superior consumption. Evidence of this can be seen in the rush of nations to organize free trade agreements with China. Also, the amount of US dollars owned by the China’s government is worrisome…if they ever decided to sell these off, the US dollar would plummet in value. Why the US government wants this level of economic power in a potential competitor’s hands is a question for the Treasury Department, who doesn’t appear to care.
On the other hand, the military of China is relatively weak. It is a land based army meant to quell internal disputes. The army is currently incapable of taking over Taiwan…a small island within view of its shoreline, even if the US was to stay out of the conflict. Sure increased GDP and income should lead to a military buildup, but there are some problems with this for China. It would scare everyone in the region and world, to the point where steps would probably be taken economically to constrain China’s growth, if not militarily. China's leaders are wary of this perception, as evidenced by Hu Jintao (China's leader) emphasizing the "peaceful" rise of China in speeches.
More importantly, China is still a developing country with 200 million people living on less than a dollar a day. Additionally, China has had several problems with unrest, the product of being a multiethnic nation with growing economic inequality and an authoritarian government. In fact, I would posit that its more likely China will suffer an internal collapse before it challenges the United States for number one.
Much of the perceived gain by China on the US is actually due to the US losing power relative to the rest of the world. We have peaked in terms of growth, as Stu has been talking about, and are moving into a new era where there is nowhere left to expand in terms of economic or political influence. The next step is the question in people’s minds: Stu envisions us as a nation of artistic expression and creativity, which I think is beautiful. The Bush administration envisions us as a nation of crusaders, spreading our ideology and values onto the rest of the world. Whichever vision or road we take, China will not likely prevent us from getting there. A speedbump, but not a roadblock.
Why is this? Well they do have a lot of people, and more importantly, are growing like mad. The average annual growth rate for China in the last ten to twenty years is around 8-10 percent, whereas the US’ is probably around 3 percent. One of the key’s to the United States’ dominance right now is that they serve as the primary export market for many areas of the world…we buy a lot of shit. China could steal our role in that sense, with growing income and a four times as many people. Many of the doomsday scenarios occur where the US becomes marginalized as other countries eagerly ally themselves with China economically and politically to take advantage of China’s superior consumption. Evidence of this can be seen in the rush of nations to organize free trade agreements with China. Also, the amount of US dollars owned by the China’s government is worrisome…if they ever decided to sell these off, the US dollar would plummet in value. Why the US government wants this level of economic power in a potential competitor’s hands is a question for the Treasury Department, who doesn’t appear to care.
On the other hand, the military of China is relatively weak. It is a land based army meant to quell internal disputes. The army is currently incapable of taking over Taiwan…a small island within view of its shoreline, even if the US was to stay out of the conflict. Sure increased GDP and income should lead to a military buildup, but there are some problems with this for China. It would scare everyone in the region and world, to the point where steps would probably be taken economically to constrain China’s growth, if not militarily. China's leaders are wary of this perception, as evidenced by Hu Jintao (China's leader) emphasizing the "peaceful" rise of China in speeches.
More importantly, China is still a developing country with 200 million people living on less than a dollar a day. Additionally, China has had several problems with unrest, the product of being a multiethnic nation with growing economic inequality and an authoritarian government. In fact, I would posit that its more likely China will suffer an internal collapse before it challenges the United States for number one.
Much of the perceived gain by China on the US is actually due to the US losing power relative to the rest of the world. We have peaked in terms of growth, as Stu has been talking about, and are moving into a new era where there is nowhere left to expand in terms of economic or political influence. The next step is the question in people’s minds: Stu envisions us as a nation of artistic expression and creativity, which I think is beautiful. The Bush administration envisions us as a nation of crusaders, spreading our ideology and values onto the rest of the world. Whichever vision or road we take, China will not likely prevent us from getting there. A speedbump, but not a roadblock.
# posted by Marmaniac @ 2:24 AM 
