Friday, October 29, 2004
November is upon us!
First, congrats to the 2004 Red Sox. I wanted to write a post being bitter about them winning and how I hate them now, but I will hold off for the moment. I will say that, the problem with the red sox becoming 'just another team' as the sports guy says, is that people usually hate 'other teams'. So red sox nation has become just 'red sox fanbase'. not that there's anything wrong with it.
Anyway, only a few days till the fateful tuesday! For me, this election is like a national sporting event- I'm sure you noticed the electoral-vote counter at the top of the page. Watching it update daily is like gamecasting an incredibly close baseball game: you're not sure whether it's updating fast enough, you can't really trust that it's accurate at all, but it's all you've got, so you have to watch it regardless. And what an event it's turning out to be. There are a handful of variables coming down to the wire; are the undecideds going to come out 67% in favor of Kerry? or 75%? Are the young voters going to come out in force? Did the get-out-the-vote efforts work better for Bush or Kerry? Anyway, just look at the maps; it's Red America vs. Blue America. And what it's going to come down to is a handful of states.
I guess this is yet another indictment of the electoral college. All but a few states are wrapped up; in fact, most experts concede that it's going to come down to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Doesn't this bother anyone else? The fate of the nation's next 4 years is going to come down to 5 states? I guess, in a way, these 5 states represent the nation pretty well; they're half-urban, half-rural, much like the way red and blue already dichotomize our country. So it shouldn't be a big surprise that these are the ones that are close enough to 50-50.
It's crazy to see all these polls fly back and forth; but at this point, you've got to like Kerry's chances. The history of undecideds going to the challenger helps him immensely, and much like 2000, there is evidence that the polls show a republican bias; in 2000, national polls predicted a 4% victory for Bush in the popular vote, Gore won by .5%. Florida may be lost to Kerry, but if Ohio and Pennsylvania go his way, it will be hard for Bush to pull out the victory. But then again, this is just relying on the polls.
Anyway, this national spectacle of a election should have an entertaining finish. I hope Kerry wins by at least 30 electoral votes; it'll make my prediction come true, and it will make it that much harder for Bush to challenge the outcome of the election. But I'm no longer going to live and die with the results of this election; I was disappointed that Bush won in 2000, I won't be much more disappointed if he wins on Tuesday. Bush may be a stubborn idiot, and I hate to think what he can do in four years without having to worry about re-election, but he can't possibly get any worse. Plus, we can always remember him as the worst two term president in the history of the nation. On the other hand, Kerry's campaign has been so insistent on getting the "we will hunt all terrorists down and kill them" that I really wonder if he isn't just going to make the same mistakes as Bush.
I imagine a scenario like this: if Bush wins, we'll almost certainly have a democratic president in 2008. If Kerry wins, we'll almost certainly have a republican president in 2008, because I can't imagine Kerry being a two-termer either. But I live in the present, and I think Kerry now, and hopefully a more fiscally conservative (and more socially moderate) republican in 2008 will put this country more on the right track.
But I'm not going to make the threat of leaving the country this time around. Especially when the rest of November holds so much promise: the OC season 2 on november 4th, Halo 2 on november 9th, and good old thanksgiving, on the 25th.
Anyway, only a few days till the fateful tuesday! For me, this election is like a national sporting event- I'm sure you noticed the electoral-vote counter at the top of the page. Watching it update daily is like gamecasting an incredibly close baseball game: you're not sure whether it's updating fast enough, you can't really trust that it's accurate at all, but it's all you've got, so you have to watch it regardless. And what an event it's turning out to be. There are a handful of variables coming down to the wire; are the undecideds going to come out 67% in favor of Kerry? or 75%? Are the young voters going to come out in force? Did the get-out-the-vote efforts work better for Bush or Kerry? Anyway, just look at the maps; it's Red America vs. Blue America. And what it's going to come down to is a handful of states.
I guess this is yet another indictment of the electoral college. All but a few states are wrapped up; in fact, most experts concede that it's going to come down to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Doesn't this bother anyone else? The fate of the nation's next 4 years is going to come down to 5 states? I guess, in a way, these 5 states represent the nation pretty well; they're half-urban, half-rural, much like the way red and blue already dichotomize our country. So it shouldn't be a big surprise that these are the ones that are close enough to 50-50.
It's crazy to see all these polls fly back and forth; but at this point, you've got to like Kerry's chances. The history of undecideds going to the challenger helps him immensely, and much like 2000, there is evidence that the polls show a republican bias; in 2000, national polls predicted a 4% victory for Bush in the popular vote, Gore won by .5%. Florida may be lost to Kerry, but if Ohio and Pennsylvania go his way, it will be hard for Bush to pull out the victory. But then again, this is just relying on the polls.
Anyway, this national spectacle of a election should have an entertaining finish. I hope Kerry wins by at least 30 electoral votes; it'll make my prediction come true, and it will make it that much harder for Bush to challenge the outcome of the election. But I'm no longer going to live and die with the results of this election; I was disappointed that Bush won in 2000, I won't be much more disappointed if he wins on Tuesday. Bush may be a stubborn idiot, and I hate to think what he can do in four years without having to worry about re-election, but he can't possibly get any worse. Plus, we can always remember him as the worst two term president in the history of the nation. On the other hand, Kerry's campaign has been so insistent on getting the "we will hunt all terrorists down and kill them" that I really wonder if he isn't just going to make the same mistakes as Bush.
I imagine a scenario like this: if Bush wins, we'll almost certainly have a democratic president in 2008. If Kerry wins, we'll almost certainly have a republican president in 2008, because I can't imagine Kerry being a two-termer either. But I live in the present, and I think Kerry now, and hopefully a more fiscally conservative (and more socially moderate) republican in 2008 will put this country more on the right track.
But I'm not going to make the threat of leaving the country this time around. Especially when the rest of November holds so much promise: the OC season 2 on november 4th, Halo 2 on november 9th, and good old thanksgiving, on the 25th.
# posted by Stuart @ 2:17 AM 
