Your Thoughts Exactly: Perfect Prognostication From the Mind of Marmaniac: The AFC Preview

Monday, September 06, 2004

 

Perfect Prognostication From the Mind of Marmaniac: The AFC Preview

Oh hurrah, hurrah, the NFL is finally here. But wait, I’m stranded on a desert island 10 time zones away. And you wouldn’t believe this, but in other parts of the world, people just don’t care about the National Football League, or gridiron, as they call it in these parts. They don’t even have games on free-to-air television! And since cable TV is excessively expensive, it looks like I won’t be seeing too many games. Alas, alas, I guess I still have the AFL Grand Final to cheer me up. Blech. You know it’s bad when I am considering taking my spring break trip to Hawaii just to get in two Sundays of NFL action.

Ok lamenting aside, let’s analyze the AFC prognosis for the 2004 season. Since gambling is all I have left, there will be a heavy emphasis on who will do well versus the spreads, and such.

AFC East

New England: The four greatest Patriots seasons of my lifetime: 1994, 1996, 2001, and 2003, all began with losses. In fact, in years where we have started off hot and looked like world beaters (1997, 2002) the season has ended in disappointment. So I should no doubt be rooting for the Pats to lose to the Colts on Thursday no? Well we won’t, but that has more to do with the Colts then us. Even when we sucked in 99 and 00, we still beat the Colts. Looking at the schedule, I am reminded of the Pats incredible success at home last year, and can’t really see anyone coming in to the Razor and beating us. 7-1 at home at the worst. We have some tough and very losable road games, like at St. Louis and at Kansas City. But overall the team should be solid. We tanked in 2002 because we couldn’t stop the run for about a month straight, leading to 5 consecutive losses where Tomlinson and Ahman Green, etc. just ran all over us. The defense should be solid again this year. The only question mark is the o-line, where we lost Damien Woody to Detroit. You can’t win against good teams with no pass protection…I hope Bellychick and crew know what they’re doing

Record: 12-4 Versus the Spread: The Pats traditionally get no love from Vegas, which was key to my success in Pro Football Pick Em last year. Take them the first week versus the Colts, they’ll probably be favored by 3.5 or less. As the season moves on, I wouldn’t bet on them too much, because, especially if they start hot, they’ll be getting numbers way to big. Even last year when we went 14-2 we didn’t blow too many teams out. After the KC road game, pick them every week. We usually finish strong.

New Jersey Jets: Why is Herman Edwards still coaching? I mean I don’t think he necessarily should have been fired last year, he won the division in 2002 and Pennington was hurt last year, but it seems like no one has ever challenged his authority or coaching credentials. He has a very authoritative tone, which means the journalists are likely afraid of him. If the Jets don’t compete this year, his time may be up. And compete they shall. Why? Because their schedule is incredibly easy, especially at the beginning of the year. That and Pennington is back. However, the schedule karma bites them in December, as the Jets will be this year’s victim of the dreaded End-of-season-collapse. Last four games are at Pitt, Seattle and New England at home and at St. Louis.

Record: 8-8, I really think the Jets will start the year hot, which will mean by mid-October, they’ll be favored by much more than they should be. Stab them in the back in around week 7, when they travel up to Foxboro.

Buffalo: Sportswriters really like Buffalo for some reason, friendly ownership perhaps? Or maybe Buffalo fits their idea of the archetypal football town; cold weather, rabid-fan base, the home of Buffalo wings. Because of this, the Bills always get overrated coming into the season. Well they lost their best cornerback, but more importantly, they didn’t do enough in the off-season to ensure Bledsoe gets time to pass. 40 sacks plus and a QB rating under 80 equals cutting block for Drew. He should go play somewhere warm next year...(Dallas, Miami?)

Record: 7-9, The Bills won’t start the year hot at all; I’d pick the Jags over them in week one even at home. You may be able to ride them in about weeks 8-12, when they get some attractive home games, but the schedule maker has not been kind; the only teams that visit in the dead-cold of December are Pittsburgh and Cleveland, both cold weather teams in their own right.

Miami: Everyone is down on the Dolphins, with Ricky Williams retiring and David Boston going out for the year. Now I love David Boston, mostly due to his spot on my fantasy team in 2001 (the one year he lived up to his potential,) and several Pro Bowl-caliber seasons in Madden 2003. However, lets be honest, it’s much more likely he was going to catch 40 balls as opposed to 100. So you can’t think of Miami as having lost a Pro Bowl receiver. That said, the loss of Ricky hurts big. Sure he may have had three yards a carry last year, but that’s because defenses were playing nine guys in the box since they knew Jay Fiedler couldn’t beat them. And he still can’t, especially with Travis Minor now the primary back. If the aging defense collapses, with Ogunleye gone and the secondary showing signs last year, then Miami will be on the clock.

Record: 6-10, Miami always starts hot and collapses. Why? Because it’s tough to play in Miami in September. You always see the opposition reaching for the oxygen tank on the sidelines. Considering how much crap has been piled on them this offseason, the Fins will probably be huge underdogs at the beginning, so perhaps some money can be made if you think they will start hot. That said, bet big against them every game after Thanksgiving.

AFC North

Cincinnati- That’s right. You know there is going to be some new blood in the playoffs, that’s why it’s dumb for all these damn publications to be picking the same teams as last year. That’s not the way the season’s going to work. Plus picking the Bengals isn’t really that big of a leap, they are young and up and coming, and a win away from the playoffs last year. I figure they struggle early, and Palmer will put it together and lead them to glory, or they will struggle early, and Kitna will reclaim the starting QB spot and lead them to glory. Either way we are looking at their first division title since 1988

Record: 10-6. Look for the Bengals to take advantage of an easy early schedule, then struggle, allowing you to make some money betting against them. But once they seemingly bottom out after week 8, the schedule eases up a bit and you can start taking advantage of some good spreads.

Baltimore: Deion is returning? I hope he gets knocked on his ass several times. It aint 1994 anymore. I see him getting carted off after a vicious Hines Ward block in week 2. Also, he can’t play QB. Or WR (even though he tried.) And he isn’t a licensed attorney, which is what Jamal Lewis will need around week 8. Good defense yes, but this team isn’t a Super Bowl contender.

Record: 9-7 Their defense will be good enough to hold games against bad teams, and win most games at home, probably comfortably. I’d bet against them in games like, at home vs. KC or at Philly

Pittsburgh: I’m not buying the supposed Jerome Bettis resurgence. I don’t think Duce Staley can get through the year as the number one back. I think Tommy Maddox may be looking to get back to the XFL after this season. All in all they are a year away from returning to the playoffs long-term. The more interesting question is whether Cowher will be around after the year is done.

Record: 7-9. I think this will be one of those up and down teams that can beat anyone and lose to anyone, and they will frustrate the hell out of me in Pick Em. Stay away.

Cleveland: Hopefully Kellen Winslow will tear it up, since I have him on my fantasy team. However, you don’t often hear teams say “man that new Tight End we got made all the difference,” at the end of the year. I like Jeff Garcia as a player, and appreciate that he made himself into a Pro Bowler by sticking with the game. I also think Terrell Owens is a giant ass, especially for calling Garcia gay in Playboy. I used to love TO, but that’s the last straw. Plus, how can you get away with calling someone gay when you have pictures like this on your own damn website? Ok I’ve been warned by the political incorrectness police that I’ve gone overboard. Self-righteous Asians.

Record: 4-12. One of my favorite “NFL Films” productions, is on I believe the 2000 Steelers, where they go into great detail about how the team started 5-2, taking like 24 of the show’s 25 minutes, and then ending with “unfortunately, the Steelers lost their next 7 games, taking them out of playoff contention.” I believe the 2004 Browns edition will focus on games 5-9 exclusively.

AFC South:

Jacksonville: Sure they’ve been everyone’s sleeper since closing strong last year. And sure, I may be influenced by having a strange infatuation for Byron Leftwich, if only because I envy his name. But there are some other strong signs. First, Fred Taylor has played in 32 consecutive games. Second, they have good young d tackles, good young LBs, with a young, defensive-minded coach. Sounds like Carolina last year to me. What are some problems that could keep them from being this years Panthers? Well they signed Dewayne Washington to play CB, never a good sign. And unless Reggie Williams is better than his preseason shows, Leftwich may be searching for targets again.

Record: 11-5. The sleeper gambling pick to start off the season, although Vegas started catching on at the end of last year. Don’t be afraid to pick them early, but be aware of overhype,

Tennessee: I originally was going to have them collapsing, and they may yet if McNair goes down. Losing Eddie George probably won’t matter that much, although he fit better for them then he will in Dallas; he fit into the punishing, physical mentality of the team, epitomized by Fisher and McNair. Speaking of those two, they are still around, and nothing keeps a team afloat like a great coach and a great QB. I doubt they will replicate last year’s success, they’ve lost too many good players on both sides of the ball. It will be a travesty if McNair never wins a ring with the Titans, surely both he and the fans deserve one, as they probably had the best team in football in 1999 and 2000. Ah Al Del Greco.

Record: 10-6, Another team that will struggle early. Like most fading great teams, they will no doubt be able to reclaim past glory occasionally, but could also throw out some clunkers against younger teams. Watch how injured McNair is, he usually plays much better hurt. But you don’t want to have money on them with Billy Volek in the picture.

Houston: Inching towards the playoffs, one losing season at a time. I think the 2004 Texans will resemble the 2003 Bengals, some exciting breakout performances on offense from Carr and Andre Johnson, but not quite enough to get over the hump. 2005 though…

Record: 8-8 The Texans will probably have a pretty good record against the spread. Look for them to start hot, they have an easy first few games. And look for them to score some “upsets” over teams like Denver and Indy.

Indianapolis: I think Peyton’s a great QB, certainly no worse than Marino, especially considering their relative playoff, successes/failures. It’s just damn hard to win a Super Bowl without a good defense. Also, I am going to fearlessly predict that one of the most consistent receivers ever, Marvin Harrison, drops off this year. And Edge decides halfway through the year to meet up with Ricky Williams in India.

Record: 6-10 The Colts will spend the first half of the year losing tough games like at New England and at Tennessee, while beating some teams by enough to give gamblers hope that they are coming back. After Edge surprisingly retires, the floor collapses, and the second half is a disaster.

AFC West:

Kansas City: Unless Gunther Cunningham can play some D-tackle, they’ll still be plagued by the same defensive problems that Indy exposed in the playoffs, and that were evident the entire second-half of last season. We all remember the game where Clinton Portis ran for 5 TDs against them. What you don’t? Oh I guess you didn’t have him on your fantasy team like I did. Anyways the Chiefs still have a great offense, a great coach, and a not too difficult schedule.

Record: 11-5. Should actually be an easy team to read. They will beat almost everyone at home, and murder bad teams, but if they are favored against a team with a Taylor or McAllister at RB, you know what to do.

Oakland: They are relying on a 40 year old Quarterback to come back and throw to what receivers? And who is playing Running Back? One good thing about being in Australia is I get to avoid the near weekly feature on either NFL Sunday Countdown, Fox, or CBS, about how funny Warren Sapp is, or how motivated he has become, or how crappy he is. And I get to miss Shannon Sharpe’s debut as a commentator. Hopefully they’ll have killed him off by the time I get back in 2005. Back to the Raiders, their best move would be to put Tui at QB, get rid of the real cancers like Woodson, and rebuild through youth. But that’s not the Al Davis way. Hey give, him some credit, he has built winners through recycled parts before. He’s also had his share of Jeff George/Desmond Howard disaster signings.

Record: 7-9. The Raiders have some serious NFL sex appeal as the supposed bad boys of the league. This sometimes leads to them getting better spreads than the deserve. Stay away

Denver: You already know how I feel about Jake the Snake. One more note on Plummer, he did manage to go 23-30 in Denver’s 41-10 loss to Indy last playoffs. But 23 completions for 188 yards? That’s freaking terrible. Throw in 2 picks and that’s pretty awful. But it was against Indy’s stacked D, so some of its understandable. Mike Shanahan has had the genius label for some time now, which I attribute as partially deserved for leading the Broncos to two Super Bowls, and partly due to the surprising amount of ex-Broncos that hold broadcasting jobs covering the NFL. Tom Jackson, Mark Schlerth, Sharpe, Terrell Davis…there must be more. I think he’s lost his mojo a bit, how do you get blown out like that to Indy? And I think they’ll miss Clinton Portis a ton. I’ll trust Joe Gibbs over Shanahan.

Record: 6-10. Will beat Kansas City opening night, and then tank the rest of the season. Mark my words.

San Diego: LaDanian Tomlinson’s wife is named LaTorsha. That is all

Record: 1-15. When Bill Parcells stabbed the Pats in the back to take over the Jets in 1997 to take over the 1-15 Jets, he commented that “we played them twice last year, and they were the best 1-15 team I’ve ever seen.” Not anymore. That honor now goes to the 2004 San Diego Chargers.

Division Champs: New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City.
Wildcard: Tennessee, Baltimore
First Round Byes: New England, Kansas City (virtue of beating Jags in regular season)

Wildcard Round
Jags 24, Ravens 13
Bengals 31, Titans 30

Divisional Playoffs
Pats 27, Bengals 16
Jags 27, Chiefs 24 (OT)

AFC Championship
Pats 17, Jags 7

If you count all the won-loss records in my version of the preview, and in Stu's and find we've made some sort of error, you are very bored and need to spend better time wasting your miserable life. Go here for some quality entertainment

Comments:
uh, marmar, what are you doing looking at those T.O. pics...not that there's anything wrong with it.
 
I promise you this much Dave, I was not thinking about Big Black Dick
 
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