Your Thoughts Exactly

Nomar to either the Cubs or White Sox for prospects, which are sent to Arizona, who then sends the Red Sox Randy Johnson. I am against this deal on sentimental grounds alone. Nomar is our last home grown star, one of the few players keeping us from being labeled the 97 Marlins. I don’t understand the front office’s need to sell out for the present, it almost never works, there is too much other competition for the postseason, and with the Yankees spending 60 million more than any other team, you are never going to build a team that is a cinch in the postseason. The Yanks have too many good players. Instead, every year we waste any prospects we have on players like Scott Sauerbeck or Cliff Floyd, who usually end up off the team by the end of the year. Most importantly, if we do win, I want Nomar to be at the parade, grinning at my screams of psychopathic adulation…if I am still alive after the post-game party.
Sentimentality aside, the proposed Unit-Nomar swap isn’t necessarily a winner for the Sox. I don’t think it improves our postseason chances. First off, Unit and Nomar are about equal in terms of value. In terms of Win Shares: Johnson contributed 29 in 2002 and 6 in an injury-riddled 2003. Nomar meanwhile contributed 27 in 2002 and 25 in 2003. (Win Shares, for those that don’t know, are a statistic created by Bill James which attempts to quantify a players contribution to his team in terms of team wins. The metric is for both pitchers and hitters, across all eras. For beginners, think of 3 win shares as equivilant to one team win. Thus Nomar’s 27 win shares were responsible for 9 of Boston’s 93 wins in 2002. Thus the difference between the two is small.) We can probably expect them to contribute at about equal levels for the rest of 2004.
So Johnson probably will not make the Red Sox finish with more wins than Nomar would. Then there is the question of replacement. Nomar would be replaced by Pokey Reese. Johnson would probably move Arroyo or Lowe to the bullpen and one of our bullpen scrubs to the minors. Thus the real difference in wins would be Johnson’s production as opposed to Arroyo’s/Lowe's and Nomar’s as opposed to Pokey’s.
We know this about Pokey Reese: he cannot hit. He can field. He has some speed. He is also 1 for his last 25. Both Arroyo and Lowe can pitch well occasionally, they may be able to contribute something in the second half as a starter, (Lowe is capable of pitching as well as Johnson.) We know that Reese won’t be producing with the bat enough despite his fielding. Thus Nomar’s bat would be missed even more, as the difference between his production and that which would replace him (Reese’s) is greater than the difference between Johnson’s added production and that which he would be producing (Arroyo’s or Lowe’s)
Additionally, this trade should absolutely not occur if Nomar goes to the White Sox, as we would be strengthening one of our competitors for a playoff spot in an attempt to bolster our rotation for the playoffs. That is the primary motivation for this trade: that a rotation of Schilling-Pedro-Unit would be unbeatable in the playoffs. Problem: Top-heavy rotations don’t guarantee playoff success. Case in point: Oakland A’s from 01-03. Or the Braves in the entire decade of the 1990s. Johnson, like most players, has either had stretches of playoff dominance (1995, 01 World Series,) or streaks of playoff failure (97-99 postseasons.) Plus, the Red Sox right now don’t need to be focusing on playoff rotations, they need to be focusing on catching the Yankees, or stretching their lead in the wildcard (now at 1 game.) And an everyday player of Nomar’s caliber will better help accomplish this goal.